2013 Predictions: J.P. Arencibia

Feature

J.P Arencibia enters 2013 with his status as the Blue Jays’ #1 catcher ensconced not only for this season, but for the foreseeable future, following the trade of top prospect Travis d’Arnaud. He will receive the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate, most likely sitting once every turn through the rotation when knuckleballer R.A. Dickey starts. Outside of a broken hand, which cost Arencibia six weeks playing time last year, his 2012 performance was largely a redux of his rookie season. In fact, there was almost no variance in his OBP, SLG or OPS from year-to-year.

Batting Stats (Past Three Seasons):

Year Age Tm G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2010 24 TOR 11 35 3 5 1 0 2 4 0 2 11 .143 .189 .343 .532 41
2011 25 TOR 129 443 47 97 20 4 23 78 1 36 133 .219 .282 .438 .720 91
2012 26 TOR 102 347 45 81 16 0 18 56 1 18 108 .233 .275 .435 .710 89
3 Yrs 242 825 95 183 37 4 43 138 2 56 252 .222 .275 .433 .708 88

Matt:
With two seasons under his belt we now have a pretty good idea what to expect from J.P. Arencibia. He doesn’t get on base a lot, but he hits for power, making him a decent bottom-of-the-lineup hitter. He’s still young enough that I expect we’ll see a slight improvement in his average and on base percentage, but otherwise I think we’ll see more of the same from our main catcher in 2013.

Kieran:
As much as I’d love to believe otherwise, I think we’ve seen enough of JPA to expect more of the same in 2013. If you look back at his performance in the minor leagues, he posted a .333 OBP over four seasons – a figure that was inflated by a second go-around of AAA in the hitter-friendly Las Vegas environment. He never once drew as many as 40 walks in a season. He is what he is: an all-or-nothing power hitter who unfortunately doesn’t seem to have much patience or strike zone judgement. He’s entering his age-27 season, often thought to be a hitter’s peak, so I forecast moderate, but not significant improvement.

2013 Predictions:

2013GABHRRBISBAVGOBPSLG
Matt12040022701.245.290.445
Kieran13245025752.240.295.450

We encourage you to use the comments section to post your own predictions.

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Comments
53 Responses to “2013 Predictions: J.P. Arencibia”
  1. Sturges says:

    JPA has great power but lacks speed so my prediction is he will not hit for the Sturges!

  2. Scott says:

    I can take the low average if he keeps hitting 20+ homers. I would like to see him with more patience at the plate as 18 walks in 102 games is extremely low. He is one of the better power hitting catchers and if his defensive improves with a light offensive improvement all around we will have an above average catcher in the team. That’s more than enough with the rest of the lineup.

    Side note: He will forever be compared to D’Arnaud and it will be interesting to see how Travis does in the majors as he and JP put up similar numbers in the minors.

    • Kieran Roy says:

      Scott: JPA and TDA put up similar AAA numbers at first glance. But he was older than TDA and it was JPA’s second tour of the level (his first year of AAA was much less inspiring). Unfortunately, he’s never shown much patience at any level. I hope he develops this skill, but it’s not likely to happen.

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