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2013 Predictions: Colby Rasmus
Colby Rasmus was a first round selection (28th overall) of the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2005 amateur draft. Between the ages of 18 and 21, Rasmus demonstrated power (29 HRs in 128 AA games), speed (stealing as many as 28 bases in a single season) and patience (a .366 OBP across four minor league seasons) all the while playing a premium defensive position in centre field. Not surprisingly, he was ranked the #3 overall prospect by Baseball America leading into the 2009 season. Those lofty expectations appeared to be translating into major league stardom when, at age 23, he posted a .276 / .361 / .498 batting line. However, his last two seasons have been disappointments, revealing Rasmus to be a streaky hitter that only briefly offers glimpses of his potential. With the Jays in a win-now frame of mind, 2013 is a critical year for Colby Rasmus – another slow start, coupled with the continued development of Anthony Gose, and Rasmus could find himself on the bench and potentially even a non-tender candidate next offseason.
Batting Stats (Past Three Seasons):
| Year | Age | Tm | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 23 | STL | 144 | 464 | 85 | 128 | 28 | 3 | 23 | 66 | 12 | 63 | 148 | .276 | .361 | .498 | .859 | 132 |
| 2011 | 24 | TOT | 129 | 471 | 75 | 106 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 53 | 5 | 50 | 116 | .225 | .298 | .391 | .688 | 88 |
| 2011 | 24 | STL | 94 | 338 | 61 | 83 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 40 | 5 | 45 | 77 | .246 | .332 | .420 | .753 | 108 |
| 2011 | 24 | TOR | 35 | 133 | 14 | 23 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 39 | .173 | .201 | .316 | .517 | 37 |
| 2012 | 25 | TOR | 151 | 565 | 75 | 126 | 21 | 5 | 23 | 75 | 4 | 47 | 149 | .223 | .289 | .400 | .689 | 85 |
| 4 Yrs | 571 | 1974 | 307 | 479 | 95 | 16 | 76 | 246 | 24 | 196 | 508 | .243 | .313 | .422 | .735 | 98 | ||
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Matt:
For Colby Rasmus, there are only two likely scenarios for this season: improve on last year or lose his job as the Jays starting centre fielder. Rasmus has shown the ability to be a very good major league hitter (in 2010 and again last June), but he has struggled to find consistency. With Anthony Gose waiting in the wings, Rasmus will need to find that consistency if he is to remain in the lineup every day. I tried to ascertain what the difference was between ‘good’ Rasmus and ‘bad’ Rasmus by comparing his numbers from last year to his numbers from 2010 and I found that there is a thin line separating the two. In 2012 Rasmus actually struck out less often and put the ball in play more often (64% of plate appearances vs. 56% in 2010), but he also took fewer walks. Luck may play a role (Rasmus had a .354 BABIP in 2010 and a .259 BABIP in 2012) as his real problem seems to be that the contact he’s making just isn’t as good as it was in 2010. His ground ball percentage is up (from 32.0% to 37.6%) as is his infield fly ball percentage (14.4%, up from 5.2%) while his fly ball percentage has dropped from 48.6% to 42.2%. It strikes me as strange that both his ground ball rate and infield fly ball rate are up since one would suggest that he’s getting on top of the ball too often while the other indicates that he’s getting under it too much. This is especially perplexing since pitch values would suggest that fastballs are the pitch he’s struggling with the most. It would seem that he’s ‘just missing’ too often and though he’s probably not as bad of a hitter as his 2012 numbers suggest, the reality is that he’s likely not as good as his BABIP inflated 2010 either. As such, I think it’s reasonable to expect Rasmus’ numbers to improve this year, but only modestly.
Kieran:
There is no question Colby Rasmus has the talent to succeed at the major league level. What I do question is his approach. His long swing, coupled with an open stance, makes him extremely susceptible to pitches away from him, particularly those from southpaws. He’s been labelled a streaky hitter, however, outside of a hot June, in which he managed a .878 OPS, Rasmus didn’t post better than a .747 mark in any other month. He was absolutely dreadful in the second half, posting a .515 OPS that wouldn’t keep him employed as a backup shortstop. This combination of minor league success and major league struggle makes him a difficult hitter to project. In some respects, his situation bears resemblance to another former draft hope, Travis Snider, although Rasmus has been given much more rope. I think he’s nearing the end of that rope in 2013, and it’s up to him whether he uses it to climb to new peaks or hang himself.
2013 Predictions:
| 2013 | G | AB | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt | 145 | 530 | 22 | 57 | 5 | .248 | .326 | .431 |
| Kieran | 142 | 520 | 21 | 72 | 7 | .249 | .311 | .429 |
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Definitely, the most perplexing starters on the roster. He has, indeed, been given quite the rope and when teams give up on someone whose talent was as highly regarded as any young player in the league that should raise the red flag. A lot of that was the relationship between La Russa and Colby (and Colby’s Dad) but perhaps La Russa was on to something. Colby has a laissez-faire personality and perhaps that translates into his work ethic behind the scenes. We don’t know because we aren’t there. If you take away the month of June from last year, his season was absolutely awful. I think both projections are quite favourable. I see the month of June last year as an outlier and expect an average in the ,220 range, an OBP around .300 give or take 10 points either way and SLG around .400 if we’re lucky. If his OPS is .700 on the dot then we should all be happy that he kept the seat warm for Gose in a respectable manner. His defense is good but a small sample of Gose in CF shows a better RF/9. I wouldn’t be shocked if Gose supplants Colby this year due to struggles at the plate but I hope that’s not the case.
Yo fellas, long-time reader, first-time commenter, really glad to be here, thanks for taking my call…I mean comment. So, I can’t hang at this level of statistical analysis, but I do agree with many points already made – although Scott seems like he has it out for ole’ Colby, I just can’t validate my suspicion, nor his motive (I promise to bring some more research and credibility to my next appearance on BJW).
Sorry Scott, we cool? Ok cool.
Anyhow, I’m not prepared to write this guy off by any stretch at this point. For all the reasons that are well laid out, and from all the stories heard widely from his time in STL, my feeling is that Rasmus is a guy that hasn’t yet had a true ally in his manager. Manager’s who get too involved in the development of young players are often meddling – it’s the job of the manager to hire the coaches to develop the players. Too much meddling/pressure and suddenly the guy’s not right between the ears. Just a hunch but 5 bucks says Gibby is the guy to get him going.
Scott- I don’t think we’ll see Rasmus OPS less than .700 over a full year for the simple reason that if his OPS is sub-.700 and not improving come August I don’t expect him to be the Jays every day centre fielder.
Tom- thanks for joining the fray. The prospect of Gibbons having a positive effect on Colby had occurred to me as well. Rasmus does seem to live in his own head a bit and his production gives us no indication that Farrell was doing anything that Colby found particularly helpful (which is not to say he was doing anything harmful either- clearly I have no idea what the relationship was and Colby’s demeanour and attitude never surfaced as a problem as some had feared). On the surface Gibbons does seem like a more likely candidate to form a connection with him and at this stage there’s nothing to lose so here’s hoping!
M@